quarta-feira, 14 de outubro de 2009

The Next Bubble

Um artigo no WST diz:

"How the Fed Can Avoid the Next Bubble: The central bank needs to watch asset prices and raise rates quickly when it decides the time is right.

Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve face a number of very difficult challenges in the years ahead. They include:

• Resisting pressure to monetize deficits, which would eventually cause high inflation.

• Implementing an exit strategy from the massive monetary easing of the past year.

• Maintaining the Fed's independence, which has been compromised by the direct and indirect bailout of financial institutions and congressional attempts to micromanage the central bank.

• Properly calculating asset prices and the risk of asset bubbles according to the Taylor rule, an important guideline central banks use to set interest rates.

• Supervising and regulating the financial system more effectively, particularly in the role of "systemic risk" regulator."

Mas esta lista é tudo o que nunca os Bancos Centrais conseguiram fazer. E como é que sabem que não estamos novamente e já numa nova bolha? Pelos métodos empíricos com que conseguiram assistir ao desabar do sistema financeiro?

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