Time and Money: The Macroeconomics of Capital Structure.

"Should the financial authorities, in a misguided attempt to spur production, increase the supply of bank credit, dire results may impend. If the interest rate is driven below the "natural rate"—primarily determined by people’s preferences for present over future goods—investors might be misled.

They may shift unduly to higher stages of production, not realizing that lower interest rates reflect, not a genuine decrease in time preference, but rather financial manipulation. When interest rates rise again to their "true" level, overly optimistic investments face collapse. The process of adjustment to the actual preferences of consumers is precisely, in the Austrian view, the downturn phase of the business cycle. " David Gordon - Review of Time and Money: The Macroeconomics of Capital Structure. By Roger W.Garrison. Routledge, 2001. xvi + 272 pgs.

Ver esta excelente apresentação em PowerPoint, com a explicação breve mas detalhada, e ainda assim simples de entender, sobre a relação entre a manipulação da taxa de juro e os ciclos económicos:

Lecture I: The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle (PowerPoint)

PS: Restantes:

Lecture II: Keynes and Hayek: Head to Head (PowerPoint)
Lecture III: The Great Depression (PowerPoint)
Lecture IV: The Fiscal Issues: Taxes and Deficit Finance (PowerPoint)
Lecture V: Vienna vs. Chicago on Monetary Issues (PowerPoint)