terça-feira, 4 de março de 2008

Excelente artigo sobre a actuação recente do FED II

Nos comentários de um artigo do LvMI (Bennie and the Monetary Jets, Mark Thornton) decorre um debate interessante:

" (...) Even though TAF has added $60 billion to money supply, overall M1 continues to fall, as Shadow stats and Shedlock have pointed out.

How has this occurred? The $60 billion jump has been offset by a >$60 billion drop in the Fed's long term government bond portfolio, or SOMA. Historically, whenever a long term bond (2 year to 30 year) in the SOMA portfolio matured, the Fed simply rolled it over. The cash it had spent to buy that bond therefore stayed in the economy.

Since August or so the Fed has been redeeming SOMA's bonds, not rolling them over. The face value of the bond has been paid back to the Fed, the effect being that money is being withdrawn from the economy. The effect of redeeming bonds and withdrawing circulating cash outweighs TAF's influence on increasing the level of circulating cash. Overall M1 is decreasing.

The Fed's decision to roll over or redeem is a policy decision. Unlike open operations, it doesn't depend on the willingness of commercial banks to lend the money the Fed injects into the banking industry. I sort of agree with Shedlock on this one - the Fed seems to be following a policy of shrinking money supply.

At the same time, the TAF accepts a lot of questionable collateral (mortgage backed securities, comm paper, corp bonds and more). This change in the assets backing the dollar (from relatively safe government bonds to the above) can only hurt the purchasing power of the dollar, especially if the Fed is lax on monitoring what it is accepting as collateral."

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