JN: "Edmund S. Phelps foi distinguido hoje com o Prémio Nobel da Economia 2006, pela teoria de manter a inflação estável ao limitar as expectativas de subidas de preços, anunciou em Estocolmo a Real Academia Sueca de Ciências."
Adenda: Não que o desenvolvimento melhore a "coisa"...
"Phelps desafiou a visão anterior da relação entre a inflação e o desemprego", anunciou a Academia. " Ele reconheceu que a inflação não depende apenas do desemprego mas também das expectativas das empresas e dos empregados sobre a subida de preços e de salários", acrescentou a mesma fonte."
Eu chamaria a isto a Teoria Piscológica da Inflação que aliás se estendeu ao rosto da economia, com a Teoria Piscológica do Crescimento (tipo, se as pessoas tiverem expectativas, gastam dinheiro e a economia cresce, simples não?).
E assim temos a Economia como a ciência do ... Hipnotismo.
Adenda2: Ok, estou a ser um pouco cáustico. A percepção comum sobre uma teoria em larga medida acaba por distorcer os méritos que a mesma possa conter.
Fica aqui o texto que óbviamente é mais claro sobre o trabalho em causa.
"The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2006 to Edmund S. PhelpsColumbia University, NY, USA “for his analysis of intertemporal tradeoffs in macroeconomic policy”.
Short run – Long run
The work of Edmund Phelps has deepened our understanding of the relation between short-run and long-run effects of economic policy. His contributions have had a decisive impact on economic research as well as policy.
Low unemployment and low inflation are central goals of stabilization policy. During the 1950s and 1960s the view of a stable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment was established, the so-called Phillips curve. According to this, the price for reduced unemployment was a one-time increase of the inflation rate. Phelps challenged this view through a more fundamental analysis of the determination of wages and prices, taking into account problems of information in the economy. Individual agents have incomplete knowledge about the actions of others and must base their decisions on expectations. Phelps formulated the hypothesis of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, according to which inflation depends on both unemployment and inflation expectations.
As a consequence, the long-run rate of unemployment is not affected by inflation but only determined by the functioning of the labor market. It follows that stabilization policy can only dampen short-term fluctuations in unemployment. Phelps showed how the possibilities of stabilization policy in the future depend on today's policy decisions: low inflation today leads to expectations of low inflation also in the future, thereby facilitating future policy making.
Another issue where intertemporal tradeoffs are of central importance concerns the desirable rate of capital formation. By foregoing consumption for investment in physical as well as human capital (education and research), today's generation can raise the welfare of future generations. Phelps clarified possible distributional conflicts among generations. He also showed that all generations may, under certain conditions, gain from changes in the savings rate. Phelps also pioneered the analysis of the importance of human capital for the diffusion of new technology and, hence, for growth."
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