Notas:
a) Enquanto os US se encontram militarmente e até financeiramente debilitados por aquilo que constituía exactamente zero de ameaça militar a si ou aos vizinhos do Iraque e arranja cada vez mais má vontade e conflitos potenciais na zona (Irão - "Iran warns US of global retaliation to any attack", destabilização da monarquia na Arábia Saudita, Kurdistão independente - 20 dead in clashes between Iranian army and Turkish Kurd rebels - curiosamente ou talvez não com acções mais fortes pelo separatismo no Irão quando antes, na altura da guerra Iraque-Irão, estavam apoiados no Irão e umas das razões para objecto da ira de Saddam, etc).
b) a Nato perdeu o carácter defensivo (desde o duvidoso bombardeamento da Sérvia e ocupação do Kosovo para bem do separatismo muçulmano albanês) e expande-se para as fronteiras da Rússia aproveitando-se da debilidade momentânea (isto é, medido em décadas) desta, despoletando alertas internos que observam essa expansão como uma ameça séria.
c) A China, que aceita o Status Quo de uma independência na prática mas não na forma, não aceitará o intervencionismo externo para defesa de uma secessão e separatismo formal de "Taiwain".
d) Os mesmos neo-estrategas que influenciaram a decisão sobre o Iraque, já em tempos defenderam um conflito aberto com a China (já o tinham feito antes com a URSS), estão dispostos a eleger o "Taiwain" como mais um assunto de defesa moral absoluta.
e) Russos e Chineses aparecem como parceiros estratégicos comungando dos mesmos perigos: serem objectos dos erros e consequências não previstas sempre inevitáveis quando um espirito ideológico, moralista e intervencionista na política externa e militar toma conta do império do momento (numa perspectiva histórica), incluindo, podendo Russos e/ou Chineses adoptar cabalmente o princípio da actuação preventiva...
Notícias recentes:
1. Crisis in Asia
"(...)Do the neo-crazies expect China to take advantage of virtually all our combat troops being pinned-down halfway around the world in Iraq to invade and reabsorb "rogue province" Taiwan?
Well, the war-gamers doubt that China is thinking "invasion." (...) No, the war-gamers are thinking "blockade."
A Chinese naval blockade could bring Taiwan to its knees with relative ease and minimal international protest. A sustained interruption of key sea lines of communications would be economically disastrous for the Taiwanese economy, which relies heavily on shipping for its lifeblood trade and energy needs, some two-thirds of which are fulfilled by fossil fuel imports.
China could easily impose and then enforce a successful blockade.
How to enforce? With Russian-made super-sonic sea-skimming anti-ship missiles launched by Russian-made submarines and Russian-made warships. At present, U.S. warships have no effective defense against the Russian-made Sunburn and Yakhont, both of which travel at Mach 2.5 and execute terminal maneuvers specifically designed to overcome U.S. warship defenses.(...)"
2. China show of strength for Taipei
Annual military drills this month said to simulate air, sea and land invasion of the island as warning to independence camp. China's largest military exercises of the year, to take place this month, are meant to send a 'substantial warning' to Taiwan separatists, state media said yesterday.(...)
Tension between Beijing and Taipei has been heightened since Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was re-elected this year, with China fearful his pro-independence moves are aimed at gaining formal independence."
3. China threatens to use neutron bombs on U.S. aircraft carriers
"Summary: China has once again raised the level of its threats against Taiwan, warning in an article in the Global Times that, "If the Taiwan authorities think the mainland can only launch a propaganda or psychological war, they are mistaken." Included in the article, entitled "USA, do not mix in," China claimed that it "has already finished all preparations for any use of force against Taiwan." In addition to threatening Taiwan, however, China also warned that no external force could protect Taiwan, and, in a statement directed at the United States, that, "China’s neutron bombs are more than enough to handle aircraft carriers." China is now clearly signaling to the United States that it intends to act over Taiwan President Lee Teng-Hui’s state-to-state comments. More importantly, China is also informing Washington that, if the U.S. interferes, China will not hold back as it did in 1996. For the United States, China’s warnings necessitate a careful calculation of its potential responses to a variety of possible Chinese actions and the ultimate consequences of those responses for both the U.S. and China."
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