A lógica das "influências"

1) Ucrânia: oposição denuncia "campanha de liquidação" da NTN 06.04.2005 - 13h34 AFP

Os deputados ucranianos da oposição declararam-se hoje "profundamente preocupados" com a "campanha de liquidação" lançada, segundo eles, pelas autoridades contra a estação de televisão NTN, próxima do antigo primeiro-ministro e candidato derrotado Viktor Ianukovitch.
O partido Regiões da Ucrânia, dirigido por Ianukovitch, denunciou o "reforço das pressões sobre os media independentes depois da eleição presidencial", nomeadamente sobre a estação NTN.

2) CNN: "Yushchenko was to lobby Congress for financial assistance and press for Washington's support for joining NATO as he closed out his three-day trip to the United States. He was speaking to lawmakers considering whether to exempt Ukraine from Cold War-era restrictions that tie U.S. trade with the former Soviet states to emigration rights and democratic advances. A bill to do that was introduced in the Senate shortly after Yushchenko took office in January."

Notas: A oposição à Revolução Laranja (44% dos votos) não é bem a favor de tão dramática mudança estratégica. Quanto a "nós", a lógica de puxarmos os "cordelinhos" (tradução: escolher e promover os nossos "candidatos" e chamar-lhes campeões da liberdade) para rodear o espaço natural da Rússia com a NATO faz-me lembrar o combate por "influências" que deu origem à Grande Guerra: a partir de determinado ponto irreversível, um qualquer problema menor em qualquer confim do mundo, transforma-se numa guerra mundial total, porque em todos os confins do mundo, todas as "influências" rivalizam entre si.

A propósito de tudo isto, Clan War by Leon Hadar

"(...) What many Americans fail to understand is that the collapse of centralized authoritarian governments in Kyrgyzstan, like in many parts of the world, including in Central Asia and the Middle East is propelled quite often by tribal, ethnic, religious and nationalist forces.

The anti-government uprising in Georgia and Ukraine reflected a powerful nationalist anti-Russian stance. In the case of Ukraine, tensions between the Ukrainian (Catholic) majority and a substantial Russian (Orthodox) minority (25 per cent) were very much at the center of what was happening there.

Anti-Syrian Lebanese nationalism brought together an ad-hoc coalition of the Maronite, Sunni, and Druze communities that are facing off a challenge from an authentic and powerful community of pro-Syrian Shiites. The US is allied with exactly that kind of Shiite coalition in Iraq – while confronting opposition from the Sunni minority – and backing the Kurds who want to separate themselves from both the Arab Sunnis and Shiites.

It seems that many Americans who regard the US constitution as the main national symbol that binds them together find it difficult to empathize with the sense of "organic" nationalism that reflects tribal, ethnic and religious identities – or the power of regional clans, in the case of Kyrgyzstan – that motivates much of domestic and regional politics in the rest of the world.

It's possible that much of this kind of nationalist movement would end up tearing apart not only Iraq and Kyrgyzstan but other states in the Middle East, Central Asia and elsewhere. American policymakers should recognize that these developments don't necessarily herald the rise of democracy, but could ignite civil wars and result in intervention by regional and foreign powers – a plain, old-fashioned war and one that has nothing to do with a shinning crusade to spread liberty – into which the United States would be drawn."