quinta-feira, 29 de abril de 2004

O Século 20 - o pior da história

E tudo começou com a queda do Czar...

...que depois de ter perdido uma guerra com o Japão, os Russos insistiram numa guerra contra a Aústria, por causa do "ultimatum" desta à Sérvia. E os Alemães socorreram os austriacos. E os franceses os Russos. E os Ingleses ajudaram os Franceses, tal como os Italianos e Japoneses (estes, porque eram "aliados" da Inglaterra). Os Turcos Otomanos puseram-se do lado austriaco e alemão. Wilson aparece no quarto ano de guerra e impediu uma paz equilibrada.

"Segurança colectiva" transformou-se em "destruição mútua colectiva", mais uns que outros, claro:

"At Versailles in 1919, delegates of four of the five victorious powers arrived with cold, clear ideas of what they must bring home. Japan demanded and got Germany's islands north of the equator and Shantung in China. Italy demanded and got the Austrian South Tyrol, but was denied Fiume on the Adriatic, and left embittered. France got Alsace-Lorraine, African colonies, Lebanon and Syria. But, above all, Clemenceau wanted Germany driven off the west bank of the Rhine, forced to rebuild war-ravaged France, stripped of lands and people and so weakened she would never threaten Paris again. Lloyd George got Tanganyika, Transjordan, Palestine, Iraq, the Kaiser's fleet and a treaty guarantee Germany would never again be allowed to build a navy that could imperil the nation or empire." Em Kipling's Brutal Epitaph, Patrick J. Buchanan

O primeiro a cair foi a Monarquia Russa (e o princípio do horror que foi o séc. 20 - o pior século da história):

"Russia had the best steel production technology in Europe in 1914I t also ran an enormous trade surplus, and inflation was almost nonexistent.

Foreign money poured into Russia, much of it coming from the European and American bankers arriving first-class
on ocean liners or railways. Impressed by St. Petersburg's elegant European buildings, beautiful Russian women wearing French perfumes, and the high cultural sophistication represented by the Russian ballet, these investment professionals saw unlimited potential.

The Russians obligingly created mechanisms for investors to realize that potential. Over a half-dozen organized securities exchanges boomed in their country. The most active was located in St. Petersburg and boasted a list of 612 securities in 1912.

Russian stocks were also listed on the foreign securities exchanges in London, Paris, and Berlin to facilitate trading.

Out of the total 5.2 billion rubles of Russian stocks and bonds issued during the 1908-1913 period, roughly a third
were sold to foreign investors. Of the many securities issued, British and French investors especially loved Russian railroad gold bonds. These were secured by Russian government guarantees, payable in gold, and free of currency risk.

The eager financiers included many of the most prominent banks in the world, such as Barings and Rothschild of
England, Credit Lyonnais and Societé Generale of France, and CitiBank (then National City Bank) of the United States.

These banks helped finance the construction of a vast railroad transportation network, including the famous 5,786 mile-long Trans-Siberia Railway.
(...)
For a while in the early 1900s, everything seemed to be going well in Russia. Unfortunately, this prosperity was built on an active volcano.

The country was led by the willful, autocratic Czar, Nicholas II. Disturbed by Japanese expansion in the Far East, he
plunged his ill-prepared country into a disastrous Russo-Japanese war.

Badly defeated, unwilling to undertake real political reform, and unable to improve the conditions of many Russian workers, the Czarist government was then dragged into World War I.

Few investors, however, noticed these early signs of looming disaster.
(...)
History was about to teach investors an expensive lesson. Russia's poorly-organized involvement in World War I led to many humiliating defeats.

In March 1917, the Bolsheviks, led by the master politician, Lenin, quickly seized the opportunity provided by the resulting chaos. In November, the first communist state in the world was established. Shortly after taking power, the Soviet government repudiated all international debt obligations and nationalized foreign companies without compensation."

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